YATHUSHAN VIGNARAJAN (L6)
At this moment in time, there are only nine nuclear powers in the world. The UN Security Council, consisting of the UK, France, China, USA and Russia, all legally have nuclear weapons under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Pakistan, India and North Korea all have nuclear weapons, having never signed the NPT. Israel is believed to have nuclear weapons but has adopted a policy of deliberate ambiguity, covering up whether it has nukes or not but also the depth of its nuclear arsenal. But very few countries in the modern world have had nuclear weapons and have given them up. Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are three countries of this standard, forced to give it up to receive assurances in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for recognition by the USA, UK and Russia and against any invasion by those three countries. But another country has given up nuclear weapons: South Africa. How did South Africa gain access to nuclear technology & why would they give it up?
First and foremost, we must look at how they gained access to nuclear weapons. On the 6th of August 1945, the United States of America launched its nuclear weapon, named Little Boy, shocking the world with its devastation and destroying Hiroshima and the lives of around 100,000 people. At this point, South Africa had dominion status in the British Empire, which they would leave in 1961 after a referendum was held. In 1948, as the Afrikaner-dominated National Party took control of the South African government, they established the Atomic Energy Board. With an Act of Parliament, the board exercised control over uranium mining and trade, which was commissioned to the South African Atomic Energy Corporation. By 1957, South Africa collaborated with the United States under the “Atoms for Peace” program - an agreement stated to last for 50 years. This allowed South Africa to acquire a nuclear reactor and obtain highly-enriched uranium fuel, which were important but small steps to building a nuclear weapon. From there, in 1965, South Africa received its nuclear reactor, Safari-1 and then, in 1967, they constructed another reactor, Safari-2, to produce plutonium. However, Safari-2 was abandoned in 1969 as it drained resources from another uranium enrichment program. At the turn of the decade, South Africa began to look at Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNEs), which were popularised by the USA through the Ploughshare Program. From there, the South African nuclear program took off as South African Mining Minister, Carl de Wet, approved research on nuclear weapons for the industry in 1971, likely convinced by those in the military and arms industry and top mining companies. From this point, there are multiple start positions debated as to when South Africa switched its focus from industrial nuclear weapons to military use. A US intelligence report states South Africa switched in 1973 with various explosive projects happening near Cape Town. Alternatively, the late F.W. de Klerk, said the government made the decision to change focus in 1974, which is backed by the verification of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) based on then Prime Minister, John Vorster’s actions. However, Dr Stumpf, head of the state-run Atomic Energy Corporation stated the switch took place in 1977, while Armscor officials state that just one month into PM P.W Botha’s regime in 1978 the switch took place. Despite the variation in the date of transition, in 1974, an uranium enrichment plant (Y-plant) started construction, however it was only operational by 1977. That same year, South Africa completed assembling a nuclear weapon for a “cold” test as the uranium core was depleted with a lack of enriched uranium. The test was scheduled for August 1977 but was cancelled after the test site in the Kalahari Desert was found by the Soviet Union.ᴺᵒᵗᵉ ¹ The international pressure against this test was strengthened by the USA confirming the test site and France threatening serious consequences on French-South African relations, perhaps willing to cancel a contract for nuclear power reactors. The site was then holed by concrete slabs and abandoned. Then, in 1978, as the first highly-enriched uranium was produced, Armscor took over control of the weapons programme. Armscor drew on American safeguarding practises to store the nuclear and delivery components separately, and protocols meant that the authorisation code was in the hands of the president and needed 3 other approvals to launch. By 1979, South Africa built its first device with a highly-enriched uranium core and just 3 years later South Africa built its first deliverable nuclear bomb called Hobo (later: Cabot) with a yield of 6 kilotons of TNT.ᴺᵒᵗᵉ ² But then this was dismantled and reused to make a production-model bomb to meet the military’s requirements of safety, reliability and security. From there, every 18 months, South Africa built a new bomb, and by 1989, they had reached 6 nuclear weapons under the umbrella name of ‘Hamerkop’ and were about to construct another one, which took it to its limit capped by Botha’s government
There were various factors why South Africa wanted nuclear power status. The official factor for nuclearisation was the threat of communism on its national security. The National Party, still in charge of South Africa, were heavily anti-communist and at this stage in this time, in the mid-1970s, Portugal relinquished control over its African colonies in Angola and Mozambique and both nations had undergone internal conflicts against communism. This border insecurity created fears of a “domino effect” across other nations, such as Zimbabwe, which was on the verge of gaining independence and had similar policies to the National Party. This fear was compounded when Cuban forces entered the Angolan Civil War, creating further fears of an invasion in South-West Africa (modern-day Namibia, formerly part of South Africa). This seismic threat meant South African officials bet on nuclear weapons to protect themselves as a deterrent. However, the underlying factor in their decision to pursue these devices was their international isolation from apartheid. In the 1970s, South Africa could not take part in the UN General Assembly, which helped enforce various sanctions on the nation, reinforcing its attitude toward further nuclearisation. This included UN Security Resolution 418, which passed a mandatory arms embargo on the nation. As a result of its rigid and outdated policy of apartheid, any US government aid was suspended and its own sanctions were introduced, the first of which targeted its nuclear weapon programme. Furthermore, South African athletes were banned from major sporting events, such as the Olympics and international cricket & rugby events. This further implored the South African government to regain its regional prestige and protect the nation from security threats.
No matter what the reason is, South Africa may have undergone a nuclear test, despite clear warnings against this. This incident was spotted by an American Vela Hotel satellite at 53 minutes past midnight (GMT) on the 22nd of September 1979 and was subsequently named the “Vela Incident”.ᴺᵒᵗᵉ ³ The satellite detected a double flash between the Prince Edward Islands (South Africa) and the Crozet Islands (French) in the Indian Ocean. The incident may have been a natural phenomenon, such as lightning, a meteor or a glint from the Sun. However, it was likely a nuclear explosion. The main culprit was South Africa due to the geographic location of the explosion and reports from various officials state South Africa may have had a role in this incident. However, US security reports from that year state that South Africa was two months out from building their first nuclear bomb so it would have been unlikely to directly be their own bomb. But South Africa often worked closely with another nuclear power - Israel. They certainly had nuclear weapons at this point and had reportedly sent two ships and some soldiers and nuclear experts to the area. Various officials and historians believe it was an Israeli test, likely done with South African involvement, despite Resolution 418. Jimmy Carter, US President from 1977-81, believes it was an Israeli test. This would explain why the reason for the incident still remains inconclusive as the USA may have covered up the incident to prevent a negative depiction of its foreign policy. However, the incident may not have been related to the two nations in question but rather to France, who also had a close geographic positioning at that time and maybe tested a neutron bomb or a small nuclear bomb and, unlike South Africa, they were not a signatory to the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty. Despite initial reports remaining inconclusive, declassified reports suggest that the operation was certainly a nuclear test, almost certainly being a joint South African-Israeli test, perhaps confirming the existence of the latter’s nuclear arsenal.
Despite its long-standing nuclear program, South Africa would no longer have nuclear weapons by 1993, when F.W de Klerk announced publicly the former existence of the nuclear program. This came about from various factors. The main factor to end South African international isolation. The government now under F.W de Klerk since 1989, saw denuclearisation as a motive for regional stability and peace and contacted the American government for its removal. By also ending apartheid, sanctions were lifted on South Africa and the government saw no need for the device as a deterrent. To further end South Africa’s international isolation, Harry Schwarz, a vocal opponent against apartheid and ambassador to the United States, signed the NPT with South Africa as a non-nuclear weapon state. Popular suspicion at that time suggested that the white government did not want the nuclear arsenal to fall into the hands of a new native and Coloured government but this was denied by de Klerk in 2017. Additionally, South Africa’s border security vastly improved, with the withdrawal of Cuba’s 50,000 forces from Angola and the independence of Namibia under an agreement between Cuba, Angola and South Africa in addition to the fall of the USSR meant the South African government felt less vulnerable to outside threats. By July 1990, dismantling had started and by September 1991, all of the uranium had been removed, melted down and stored. The destruction of the materials used began in 1992 and when de Klerk announced the program, many classified documents were shredded and the remainder were released to the public. Destruction of remaining non-important materials continued until 1994. Since then, South Africa has played a pivotal role against nuclear weapons, leading the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, signing it in 1996 and was ratified by all signatories in 2008. Recently, in 2017, South Africa signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons with 92 other nations, banning all nuclear weapons and ratified it in 2019.
Notes
Note 1: The Soviet Union, in 1976, were already worried about the progression of the South African nuclear programme and had wanted a strike on the Y-plant. According to reports by a Soviet spy in South Africa, the USSR wanted to halt the program in joint cooperation with the USA. This strike was rejected by the USA so the strike was scrapped.
Note 2: To put their strength into context, Hobo was about ⅖ of the strength of Little Boy (yield of 15 kilotons of TNT) dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.
Note 3: The ‘Vela Hotel’ satellites were a group of satellites launched in 1963 to monitor nuclear detonations to make sure the USSR was complying with the 1963 Test Ban Treaty. The specific satellite that caught the detonation was OPS 6911.
Bibliography
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