Dear all, Upon inheriting the Looking Glass from our predecessors, we identified a number of key issues. Firstly, there were simply not enough articles being published, due both to a lack of submissions from the school community and limited responsiveness from the previous Academic Team. Secondly, the Looking Glass had not been advertised or explained effectively enough to the wider school community. As a result, we plan to implement a more consistent and engaging stream of articles on the Looking Glass. As part of this initiative, we are looking to recruit a select group of keen writers from across the lower school who would be willing to produce one high-quality piece of writing, discussion, or media each month for publication on the Looking Glass. We believe this will be hugely beneficial both to the school community, which will gain access to a wider range of opinions and viewpoints, and to prospective writers, who will be able to reference their experience contributing to the Look...
WESLEY AKUM-OJONG (U6)
In the 2000 US presidential election, the future of America rested on the recount of a few thousand votes in Florida. Those days are now long gone. Especially over the past 15 years, Florida has drifted steadily rightwards and is moving from being a purple state to one of a distinctly redder hue. This has culminated in incumbent Republican governor Ronald DeSantis being re-elected by a 19-point margin in the 2022 gubernatorial election. But how did we get here?
The election in 2008 was the only one this century where Florida voted more Democratic than it had in the previous election. Discounting that, Florida has consistently trended right this century, with high-water marks including Bush’s 5-point victory in 2004 and Trump’s 3.4-point victory in 2020. Even in 2020 where the country as a whole shifted 2.4 points to the left, Florida bucked the trend and shifted 2.2 points to the right. Further to this, no Democrat has been elected as governor since Chiles was reelected in 1994. In other words, state-level executive power in Florida has been held by the Republicans for 25 uninterrupted years(following the expiration of Chiles’ term in 1998. It can be argued that the fact Obama was able to win the state by 2.8 points in 2008 (and 0.9% in 2012) suggests the state remains a swing state. When arguing this, it is important to remember that the Republicans have won the national popular vote just once in the 6 elections this century, while they have won Florida no less than four times. The evidence is therefore clear - Florida is a state moving rightwards, and there are several potential explanations as to why.
‘Demographics is destiny’ was the rallying cry of Noughties Democrats (Brownstein, 2009), expecting an increasingly diverse electorate to deliver increasingly common Democratic victories. In practice, however, the changing demographics of America have delivered more varied outcomes. While 65% of American Latinos do vote Democrat, 58% of Cuban Americans vote Republican (Krogstad, 2020). Traditionally, due to the proximity of Florida to Cuba, Cuban Americans have dominated Florida’s Latino population, and this may explain why the changing demographics of America haven’t pushed Florida left, although this fails to explain why the state has shifted right. The susceptibility of Cuban emigrants to anti-communist rhetoric of the type presented by Trump and DeSantis may provide some explanation for the state’s rightward shift, however. It must be noted that Cuban Americans no longer dominate the state’s Latino population, with 55% of Latino voters in South Florida being non-Cuban (Baretto & Gutierrez, 2022). Given this, there must clearly be explanations for Florida’s shift to the right beyond demographic ones - the demographic data is far too inconclusive.
Though only elected in 2018, the personal appeal of Governor DeSantis could provide an explanation for the state’s recent shift to the right. DeSantis won the state by just 0.4 points then, which grew to 19.4 point win just 4 years later. Even accounting for incumbency bias, this is still a stunning increase in popularity for the governor. DeSantis is popular in the state, enjoying a 64% approval rating in 2019, with 46% of Democrats approving compared to 39% disapproving (Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce, 2019). This may, in part, be due to the lack of COVID-19 restrictions imposed by his administration during the height of the pandemic, allowing for a healthy economy throughout 2020 and 2021. The DeSantis factor in helping drive Republican votes both up- and down-ballot is undoubtedly significant. Concurrent with his shift to a more partisan right-wing agenda, his approval ratings have slipped slightly to 54% in 2022 (Leviton, 2022), although he is evidently still a popular governor. His popularity is such that his core supporters chanted ‘two more years’ after his reelection (Woodward, 2022), reflecting their desire to see him run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, rather than complete his term as governor. This specific factor can only partially explain the past 5 years of rightward movement, and other factors together may be more significant in explaining the trend prior to this, although it is clear that the rise of DeSantis has served to push Florida to the right.
DeSantis has also ensured a strong Republican vote in Florida through less democratic means, however. Turnout fell by 9 points between 2018 and 2022, and changes to Florida laws around early voting may have harmed turnout in 2022 (Prieur, 2022). Voter suppression is a major issue in US politics and since Shelby County v. Holder (2013), it has become especially entrenched in southern states such as Florida. These laws often benefit Republicans, since Democratic voters are on average less wealthy and therefore less able to travel far or take time off work to vote, for example. Furthering the case for this was Desantis’s refusal to allow federal election inspectors into Florida for the 2022 midterm elections (Meyerson, 2022), implying that the conduct of the state in that election may have raised questions as to fairness. Voter suppression particularly targets ethnic minorities and the poor, and these groups are significantly more likely to vote Democrat than Republican, It is therefore evident that the increased prevalence of voter suppression in Florida could explain why the state has shifted to voting more Republican.
Now that the problem is clear, it is useful to explore some potential solutions for the Democrats. Increasing the turnout of minority voters will be essential considering only 51.5% of the state’s population is non-Hispanic white. Measures to ‘get out the vote’ were essential in Stacey Abrams’s transformation of Georgia from a red to a purple state (Somvichian, 2020). As in many other states, Democrats are less likely to vote than Republicans, and encouraging greater turnout in major cities will also be essential. Colorado was transformed from a purple state to a blue state through increased turnout in major cities such as Denver and Boulder (Peters, 2022), and DeSantis won his victory in Florida with many votes from the traditional Democratic stronghold of Miami-Dade County (he was the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win it since 2002). Most of all, however, Democrats must not labour under the assumption that the demographic changes occurring everywhere in America will deliver permanent democratic majorities. Demographics is not destiny, and voting patterns of minority voters can and do change, just as those of white voters do (Elliott, 2021). If the Democrats are to win back Florida, they will not do so passively.
Given the present incapacity of the Florida Democratic Party, it seems unlikely that Florida will be moving to the left any time soon, and the Republican Party of Florida is the primary benefactor of this. When future political analysts look at how Florida became a red state, it will be these trends, and the inaction of Florida Democrats, that they determine as the cause. All hope is not yet lost for the Democrats, but only if they act. The time to act has come, and if the Democrats wish to remain relevant in Florida they will seize the opportunity.
References
Baretto, M. A., & Gutierrez, A. (2022, March 3). Taking a deeper look at Hispanic voting patterns in South Florida. UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://latino.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/UCLA_Miami_Latino_Voting.pdf
Brownstein, R. (2009, January 9). Dems boosted by demography, destiny. NBC News. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna28579278
Elliott, P. (2021, June 30). Are Demographics Destiny? Maybe Not, New Pew Numbers Suggest. Time. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://time.com/6077158/pew-election-2020-report/
Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce. (2019, February 26). Poll: Gov. Ron DeSantis is one of the most popular governors in America | Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce. The Greater Miami Chamber Of Commerce. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://www.miamichamber.com/news/poll-gov-ron-desantis-one-most-popular-governors-america
Krogstad, J. M. (2020, October 2). Most Cuban American voters identify as Republican in 2020. Pew Research Center. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/02/most-cuban-american-voters-identify-as-republican-in-2020/
Leviton, C. T. (2022, February 27). Poll: Floridians give Gov. DeSantis 54% approval rating, but are split over Legislature. Florida Politics. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://floridapolitics.com/archives/501188-poll-floridians-give-gov-desantis-54-approval-rating-but-are-split-over-legislature/
Meyerson, H. (2022, November 8). Voting Rights in Florida? You Jest. The American Prospect. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/voting-rights-in-florida-you-jest/
Peters, C. (2022, November 9). Once a swing state, Colorado has become more of a blue leaning state. KOAA. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://www.koaa.com/news/covering-colorado/once-a-swing-state-colorado-has-become-more-of-a-blue-leaning-state
Prieur, D. (2022, November 7). Stetson professor says voter suppression laws hurt early voting in Florida. WUSF News. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://wusfnews.wusf.usf.edu/politics-issues/2022-11-07/stetson-professor-says-voter-suppression-laws-hurt-early-voting-in-florida
Somvichian, A. (2020, November 10). How Stacey Abrams helped get out the Black vote in Georgia. The Hill. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/diversity-inclusion/525387-how-stacey-abrams-helped-get-out-the-black-vote/
Woodward, A. (2022, November 9). DeSantis supporters chant 'two more years' in nod to possible 2024 run. The Independent. Retrieved March 16, 2023, from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/midterm-elections-2022/desantis-speech-election-results-trump-b2220975.html
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