MR G.W. ROWE, HEAD OF BIOLOGY What is it? In simple terms the R0 is a disease’s basic reproductive ratio - the number of cases at time zero measured compared to the number of cases at a future date. If there were 100 cases of disease X last week and 500 this week this would give a ratio of 1:5 and the R0 would be given as 5. Therefore, an R0 of 1.0 means the epidemic is infecting the same number of people over time and is not accelerating. An R0 of above 1.0 will lead to an exponential increase in the numbers infected and an R0 below 1.0 will lead to a decline in the numbers infected by the disease. There are many complex interacting factors which determine R0 for example, method of transmission (airborne droplet = generally lead to higher R0 values than sexual transmission), period of time where those infected are able to transmit the disease and success in isolating those infected from the general population. But, in a nutshell, the first paragraph describes what most people need to ...
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