Economics: Can the Economy Grow Forever?

Note: The following article was written by Romiru Thantirimudali L6F (20ThantirimudaliR@students.watfordboys.org)

Many economists believe that a continuously growing economy is essential to keep improving people's lives, and that if the economy were to stop growing, people would start fighting over the fixed amount of value that exists, rather than working to create new value. This dilemma has a clear relationship with the basic recognised economic problem: humans have infinite wants, but scarce resources.

For example, I want to live a healthy, stress-free life for the near and distant future. An obvious remedy for this need I have is having access to healthcare—the NHS comes to mind. Am I the only person who has this desire? Maybe you, the reader, also want to live a life free from disease, illness and misery; and you have the same solution at your hands—the National Health Service. And just like you and me, there are hundreds of thousands of people all around the UK who have the same wants and needs as us. The same solution applies to everyone.

The population of the UK is approximately 69.5 million people (ONS, 2025). The NHS has a recorded capacity of just 145,700 consultant-led beds and approximately 100,000 core general and acute beds (The King’s Fund, 2025).

Clearly, there is a significant overload of people who require NHS services compared with the number that the NHS can actually accommodate. So how have the people of the UK been able to receive arguably reasonable healthcare services for over 70 years, resisting this natural imbalance?

Productivity increases have transformed today’s economy as we know it. World GDP today is many times larger than it was 100 years ago. The processes that firms use have developed and been revolutionised, meaning overall production and efficiency have seen exponential growth. Firms can produce much more at a much lower expense, and this happening on a wider scale across an economy leads to undeniable growth. Technological advancements have significantly improved NHS productivity by reducing administrative work and freeing up staff time. By 2025, 93% of NHS providers were using Electronic Patient Records (EPRs), improving access to patient information, reducing paperwork and supporting faster clinical decision-making. More focus on education and skills across the world also leads to more innovative and highly skilled populations, meaning work as we know it is continuously advancing. These are true and encouraging steps, and it is a pattern that has been occurring for generations. So why should growth suddenly come to a halt?

Environmental concerns are becoming increasingly salient in modern society. While some leaders despise talks about mitigation and adaptation, others warn their societies and young people about the dangers and importance of climate change. It is a topic that will relentlessly be at the centre of attention for years and years to come. Coming back to the basic economic problem, scarce resources are a huge problem for future growth. Many firms currently operate using finite resources, such as coal, oil and gas. Earth has limited reserves of these resources, and eventually, extraction will become harder and more expensive. Growth as we know it will lead to higher emissions, pollution and biodiversity loss—which would simply not be allowed with the ongoing tightening of regulations surrounding finite resource use. This raises the question: can GDP growth continue to rise if environmental damage becomes too costly?

Some economists argue that richer countries should stop chasing GDP growth and instead focus on reducing existing inequality. Countries like South Africa, riddled with historic segregation, face this problem, and instead of continuing growth, the gaps between different levels of wealth should be closed. Some also argue that sustainable development should be the focus, which would mean slower rates of GDP growth but overall safer, more reliable growth. This is a solution called ‘degrowth’—taking the foot off the gas to focus on the quality of the engine.

The question may not be whether the economy can grow forever, but whether it should. If future growth is driven by knowledge, innovation and cleaner technologies, continued expansion may be possible. But if it relies on ever-greater consumption of finite resources, economic growth will eventually face limits. The challenge for the 21st century is not simply to grow—but to grow sustainably.